Prediction: Louisville-Duke
Who needs this game more:
When looking at this matchup, you can make the argument for both teams as to who needs this one more. The Blue Devils have dropped two in a row, and so has Louisville. I don't want to use the term desperate, but I think you will see two teams who are going to play like they know this is extremely close to a must-win game. Flip a coin. Both teams need this one.
What Louisville has to do in order to win:
Pretty simple: shoot better from the three-point line.
Louisville is a combined 7-of-36 from distance in their last two games. That's not going to beat many teams, and it's definitely not going to beat Duke today.
Where does three-point shooting come from? Outside of David Johnson and Carlik Jones, nobody on Louisville's roster has shown any consistency shooting it from beyond the arc.
If Josh Nickelberry is going to play 15 minutes in this one, he can't go 0-of-4 from three. Louisville needs someone to step up and prove they can hit an outside shot, especially when you consider that the Blue Devils don't defend the three particularly well.
Duke's most recent opponent, Pittsburgh, shot 35 percent from three in a win over the Blue Devils. In the game before that, Virginia Tech shot 43 percent from three against Duke. The Blue Devils have been playing a good amount of zone, and if that's the case, Louisville will get plenty of looks at three-pointers.
The Cards must take advantage of the way Duke defends the three.
The second one isn't as simple: contain Matthew Hurt and Jalen Johnson
At 6-foot-9, Hurt is second in the ACC in scoring at 18.9 points per game, and third in rebounding at 8.2 rebounds per game. Whether it's Samuell Williamson, Jae'Lyn Withers or a combination of both, Louisville has to slow down Hurt.
The other player for Duke that Louisville's defensive game plan must be centered around is 6-foot-9 freshman Jalen Johnson. In his first game back from injury, Johnson stuffed the stat sheet against Pittsburgh: 24, 15, & 7.
Johnson presents an incredible difficult matchup for anyone, and Louisville has to figure out a way to limit his production.
Prediction:
This could definitely be a key to victory, but Louisville has to start fast. Louisville simply can't afford to dig themselves into a hole like they have in the back-to-back losses. Chris Mack and the players both said they weren't ready to play against Miami and Florida State. That can't happen for a third game in a row.
Louisville needs to play with energy from the tip. It can't take a 15-point deficit to wake up. Chris Mack was very animated in his press conference after the Florida State game, and I'm sure that carried over to practice this week.
Mack said we will see Charles Minlend today for the first time since the limited action against Wake Forest. If Minlend can find some type of form, that could give Louisville a major lift.
Louisville 75, Duke 70. Cards get a much-needed win.
Notable:
Television: ESPN
Announcers: Dan Shulman (play-by-play) and Jay Bilas (analyst)
Officials: Ron Groover, Ted Valentine, John Gaffney
Spread: Louisville -3, O/U 141