This will be the final cheat sheet of this season and I’m already counting down the days ‘til I get to do this again next September. But for now, we have one more game to get excited about as the Cards head down to the Music City for the Music City Bowl.
Forecast:
Tailgate: 48 degrees with 0% chance of rain. Wind 13 mph.
Kickoff: 49 degrees with 0% chance of rain. Wind 12 mph.
Postgame: 44 degrees with 5% chance of rain. Wind 44 mph.
Key Times:
There's an insanely long list of fun things to do in Nashville today: https://www.musiccitybowl.com/fan-zone/
3pm – The Drive/Pregame Show with Mark Ennis on 93.9 The Ville
4m – Kickoff.
Postgame: Mark Ennis will host postgame show on 93.9 The Ville.
Miscellaneous:
Mississippi state is a big and strong rushing team. That’s the bad news. The good news is that their defense ranks last in the country in explosive plays allowed. Something’s gotta give. I’m preparing myself for a shootout. Also, Mississippi State’s starting quarterback got punched in the face and will not be playing, one of their linebackers declared for the NFL draft only to be called out by teammates for skipping the bowl, oh, and the team became bowl eligible after an Ole Miss receiver pretended to pee out after scoring what would have been the game tying touchdown. However, the unsportsmanlike penalty backed up the extra point attempt, which of course the kicker missed. Totally normal team.
Watch/Listen:
TV: ESPN
Online stream: WatchESPN
On the call: Tom Hart, Jordan Rodgers, Cole Cubelic
SiriusXM: Home – 371 Away – 374
Radio Stream: TuneIn.com
Series:
Mississippi State Leads 5-0. The NCAA credits Louisville with two wins in the series due to MSU playing an ineligible player in the mid-70s, but we don’t acknowledge the NCAA’s history scrubbing ‘round these parts.
Last meeting: MSU 31 – LOU 27
MSU players to Worry About
Offense:
#8 RB Kylin Hill – 235 rushes for 1347 yards, 5.7 avg, 10 TDs, 17 rec for 174 yards, 10.2 avg, 1 TD,
#7 QB Tommy Stevens – 80 for 135, 59.3%, 934 yards, 6.9 avg, 9 TD, 5 INT, 132.0 QBR. 66 rushes for 310 yards, 4.7 avg, 3 TD
Defense:
#40 LB Erroll Thompson – 38 solo tackles, 84 total, 3.5 TFLs, 0.5 sack
#32 Brian Cole II – 38 solo tackles, 67 total, 7.5 TFLs, 2.0 sacks
Keys to the Game
1. Stop the Run – Not sure how many times I’ve said this this year, but Louisville has to do something to slow down the rushing attack. Doing so against the largest o-line Louisville will have faced all season (big olines = bad) and it’s looking like it could be another long day for the Cards. However, the defense has had a month to rest and prepare for this attack, so I’m hoping we can see a similar effort that we saw against BC’s AJ Dillon. Kylin Hill is a monster and sits 45 yards away from MSU’s single season rushing record. Going to be another tough matchup for this front seven.
2. Take the Top Off – As I mentioned, ranks dead last in the country explosive plays allowed. Louisville’s offense basically runs on such plays. This is a huge advantage for Louisville and they must go for the jugular early and often. Dry weather should help.
3. Force MSU to Pass – The Bulldogs will be switching back from Garrett Shrader to Tommy Stevens after Shrader got punched in the face in practice. Both QBs have legs, but their passing numbers aren’t out of this world. Louisville needs to turn this into the Boston College game where we shut down the obvious running attack and let our offense try to keep pace with the opponent’s mediocre QB play.
Predictions
Vegas: MSU -4 o/u 64. This means Vegas estimates a score of roughly 34-30.
SP+: MSU -5.5, 63%, 35=29
ESPN’s FPI: 64.9% chance MSU wins
Staff Predictions:
Preseason Predictions:
Mark and Ty tied as they both correctly predicted 10 out of the 12 regular season games in the preseason. Dave, despite being the only one that had Louisville bowl eligible, finished 9-3. And I finished 8-4. I’m definitely not pissed about this.
