Bowl Watch - Week 7
Last week I said I hoped that this segment would not only get to continue, but have some good news in the way of bowl projections. And boy do I have some good news to share.
After taking down #19 Wake Forest on the road in one of the most insane games I can recall in recent memory, the Cards have some serious bowl buzz. Though the players may refuse to engage in bowl talk, that’s where we get to come in.
Bill Connelly’s SP+ system now gives Louisville a 78% chance of making a bowl game. I can’t even begin to explain how absurd that is, so I’ll try to do it with pictures.
Thanks to Reddit’s u/ExternalTangents for creating these SP+ win total probability distributions, and CardinalSports’s very own NkyCard89 who sends me these updates weekly, we can try to illustrate how much Louisville is overachieving and is projected to overachieve.
That right there is SP+’s win total probability for Louisville after Week 1. Projected total: 3.83 wins.
And that is SP+’s win total probability for Louisville after beating Wake. Projected total: 6.375 wins.
For those of you keeping score at home, that is an increased projection of over 2.5 wins. Doing that from year-to-year would be a big deal. But doing it in the middle of a season is unheard of.
Louisville has already hit the over on Vegas’ win total projection (o/u 3.5) with 6 games left to play. The computers aren’t alone in the bowl love anymore as the humans are finally onboard. Here’s what they’re thinking:
ESPN:
Walk-On's Independence Bowl (Bonagura) – Louisville vs. Arizona
Independence Stadium, Shreveport, Louisiana
Dec. 26, 4 p.m., ESPN
Military Bowl Presented by Northrop Grumman (Schlabach) – Louisville vs. Navy
Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium, Annapolis, Maryland
Dec. 27, noon, ESPN
Stadium (Brett McMurphy):
Sun Bowl – Louisville vs. USC
Sun Bowl, El Paso, Texas
Dec. 31, 2 p.m., CBS
Banner Society (formerly SBNation):
Quick Lane Bowl – Louisville vs. Army
Ford Field, Detroit
Dec. 26, 8 p.m., ESPN
New Era Pinstripe Bowl – Louisville vs. Michigan State
Yankee Stadium, New York
Dec. 27, 3:20 p.m., ESPN
Quick Lane Bowl – Louisville vs. Northwestern
Ford Field, Detroit
Dec. 26, 8 p.m., ESPN
CBS:
n/a
n/a
With 6 games left Louisville needs 2 more wins to reach bowl eligibility. Here’s to hoping we can get two more wins and enjoy some 2010 Beef ‘O’ Brady’s magic.