I have both good news and bad news. The bad news is that UofL is already a quarter of the way through their schedule. But the good news is that they’re sitting at 2-1, look much improved, and the schedule appears to have more winnable games than we may have originally thought.

Let’s take a look at the rest of Louisville’s schedule and see how our opponents are trending.

9/21 – @FSU ⇩

Florida State came into this season looking to rebound from their first bowless season in 36 years. There were already some rumblings in Tallahassee about Willie Taggart’s start, but with Kendall Briles being brought into the fold to handle play calling duties, there were signs for optimism. Most progniscators had the ‘Noles winning 7ish games this year, but even that total may have been too high of a bar after seeing FSU collapse against Boise St and narrowly escape at home against UL-Monroe in overtime. While FSU showed more fight than we’ve seen thus far this season on the road at Virginia, it sounds like things may be beginning to slip down in the panhandle.

10/5 – Boston College ⇩

Boston College just got their doors blown off at home by Kansas. No, not Kansas State. KANSAS. The same Kansas who, since 2008, hadn’t won a road game against a power conference opponent in 48 tries. The same Kansas who narrowly escaped Indiana State at home in Week 1, and then lost to a Coastal Carolina team who is barely 2 years removed from the FCS. It’s hard to overstate how horrendous this loss was, and it should be nothing but exciting to Louisville fans. ESPN’s FPI is currently giving Louisville a 79% chance to win this game.

10/12 – @Wake Forest ⇧

A lot of folks were down on Wake heading into this season, but the Demon Deacons are a perfect 3-0 and are coming off of an impressive win over a hot North Carolina team. Wake has some serious speed on offense that can beat defenses from side-to-side and vertically, which should be a concern for any team moving forward. National media have begun giving Wake some love as a potential favorite for the Atlantic’s runner up. Of the next three games on our schedule, I feel the least comfortable about Louisville’s ability to win this one.

10/19 – Clemson ⇔

While Trevor Lawrence has thrown more interceptions in three games than he did all last season, Clemson is still Clemson. This is the only game left on the schedule that I don’t think Louisville has a decent chance of winning.

10/26 – Virginia ⇔

After whatever the hell that FSU game was, I am tempted to say that the Hoos are trending downward, but I’m leaving them at wait-and-see for now. They barely escaped what has been a gross Seminoles team so far this season, but they did look impressive in the second half against Pitt in their home opener. I really don’t have my finger on their pulse at this point, but this will still be a tough game with it being the last of 4 games with no rest and the week after the Clemson machine rolls through town.

11/9 – @Miami ⇩

Miami is another super weird team to me. They lost to a very suspect Florida team in Week 0, and then followed it up by losing on the road to a super-confusing North Carolina team. Then last week they blew the doors off Bethune-Cookman who ranks 62nd in Bill Connelly’s SP+ FCS ratings. We have no idea if Miami is good or not, but I’m saying they’re trending downwards due to Kentucky’s exposure of Florida and the fact that Miami lost to North Carolina in football.

11/16 – @NC State ⇩

NC State was a team I had been suspicious of heading into the season due to everything that they lost from last year (2nd worst returning offensive production in the country), and it has shown. The Wolfpack got blasted by a struggling WVU team last week, and they’ll be travelling to Louisville a week after facing Clemson. If NC State is the team we saw on Saturday against WVU, then Louisville has a great opportunity to steal a win in Raleigh.

11/23 – Syracuse ⇩

While we’re just 3 weeks into the season, I’ll be the first to admit I was wrong about Syracuse. I really did think they’d be fine with Tommy DeVito (not from Goodfellas) stepping in for Eric Dungey, but things have gotten off to a rough start. Syracuse, a team that’s recently been known for their high-octane offense, had their season high of 24 points against Liberty in Week 1, and since have scored a combined 26 points to the 104 points they’ve given up to Maryland and Clemson in the last two weeks. Not ideal. I’m really starting to like this matchup, and so is ESPN’s FPI which is now giving Louisville a 72.3% to win this game at home.

11/30 – @Kentucky ⇔

As much fun as it was to see Kentucky return to its vintage form and lose in excruciating fashion to Florida, I’d be lying if I said I wasn’t impressed with most of their performance. They outplayed Florida in every facet of the game for three straight quarters, and Florida’s o-lines and d-lines had no answer for UK for much of the game. That’s something I would have ever predicted before the season. But it is worth mentioning that Florida’s Top-10 ranking is beginning to look a little hollow after seeing the way they’ve struggled against inferior competition. I think we’ll find out exactly who UK is in the next two weeks as the head on the road against Mississippi State and South Carolina. But for now, I’ll leave them at wait-and-see.