The wait is finally over. College Baseball is here and you won't find a more premier series on opening weekend than Louisville at Ole Miss. I love that Dan McDonnell isn't scared to play anyone, anywhere, at any point during the season. The Cards have five top 25 ACC road series, a midweek game at Vandy, home game against Indiana, and two games against Kentucky, plus a series to start the season at Ole Miss. This team has lofty expectations, but they will certainly take a few on the chin with the schedule they are going to face. One thing you can guarantee: they will be battle tested come May/June. Lets go ahead and jump into the weekend series.
History
Louisville and Ole Miss have become familiar foes over the years due to the relationship with Dan McDonnell and the Rebels coach, Mike Bianco. McDonnell was an assistant coach in Oxford from 2001-2006 prior to coming to Louisville and Bianco's son, Ben, is a junior at U of L. The two heads coaches have publicly endorsed one another and have the utmost respect for each other's program. It has been an exciting addition to the schedule that I hope continues for years to come. Over the last 5 years, the Cards have a slight advantage, going 4-3 against Ole Miss during that span.
Last season, the Cards and Rebels played in a midweek, top 10 clash at Jim Patterson Stadium in which Louisville swept Ole Miss. The first game featured two energetic arms that we will see on the mound again this weekend, Luke Smith and Doug Nikhazy, who both took a ND after giving up 3 runs each.
What to Expect
Swayze Field is one of the premier college baseball venues in the country and it will be electric this weekend. The Rebel faithful averaged just under 9,000 fans per game last season and it wouldn't surprise me if they get close to a single game attendance record while the Cards are in town this weekend. The previous record for Swayze Field is 12,152 against LSU in 2018. It will be a rowdy environment and according to the Ole Miss Baseball Twitter account, they don't have many reserved seats available, with many sections already sold out. At Swayze, the students pack the right-center field berm creating an intimidating, home field advantage that you don't see very often in college baseball.
The Rebels are in a rebuilding year as they attempt to replace their 2016 recruiting class that was ranked #1 in the country. You won't see many familiar faces with this team as they only have 4 seniors on their roster (3 of them are transfers) and could have 4-5 freshmen on the field at any given time. They will be replacing every position in the outfield and only have 3 solid returning position players. Even though the Rebels lost as much talent as they did, they are still ranked in the Top 25 in multiple publications, even coming in at 18 according to Perfect Game. Bianco has his program rolling, year in and year out.
Projected Roster
Catcher - Hayden Dunhurst (Freshman)
First Base - Cael Baker (JUCO transfer) or Tim Elko. Baker was named NJCAA Player of the Year.
Second Base - Justin Bench or Peyton Chatagnier (Freshman)
Third Base - Tyler Keenan - started every game last year and has 24 HR's and 104 RBI in two seasons. The Cards need to find a way to cool off his bat this weekend.
Shortstop - Anthony Servideo - started 60 games last year.
Left Field - Hayden Leatherwood (JUCO transfer) or Kevin Graham. Graham had 10 HR last season and is expected to have an even bigger year as a sophomore.
Center Field - Jerrion Ealey (Freshman) - 4/5 star running back for the Rebels football team, named a Freshman All-American on the gridiron for his performance this fall.
Right Field - Peyton Chatagnier (Freshman) or John Rhys Plumlee (Freshman) - Plumlee was also the QB for the Ole Miss football team. He has a ton of talent and a threat on the base paths.
DH - Kevin Graham or Tim Elko
Friday Starter - Doug Nikhazy - although he was charged with a misdemeanor DUI last week, Bianco is allowing Nikhazy to take the mound Friday night as he states the matter was handled internally. Ranked the number 23 pitcher according to D1 Baseball, Nikhazy was 9-3 with a 3.31 ERA in 14 starts last season as he set an Ole Miss freshman record with 86 K's. He was named All SEC, Freshman All-American, and is a preseason All-American for the 2020 campaign.
Saturday Starter - Gunnar Hoglund - the Rebels are hoping Hoglund can bounce back from his freshman season where he put up a 3-3 record with a 5.29 ERA. He is a former first round pick by the Pittsburg Pirates and was ranked #46 in his class by Perfect Game.
Sunday Starter - Derek Diamond - ranked the #37 player in the freshman class by Perfect Game, Diamond had a great fall and the coaching staff is very high on him. Starting your career against the #1 team in the country is no small task and I look for the Cards to be very aggressive and put pressure on him early.
As you can see, many of the projected starters for Ole Miss are freshman or JUCO transfers so this team doesn't have very much game experience playing with each other. That gives an enormous advantage to the Cards this weekend and I anticipate the Cards will use that to their advantage.
Prediction
It's hard to bet against Louisville this year, especially against a team that is this young this early in the season. Coach Bianco said he could play up to 7 different outfielders this weekend to try out different lineups. You will see different lineups from U of L as well, but that is because McDonnell has 12-14 legitimate starters on his roster and he is trying to find the right mix, not because his squad is young and inexperienced.
Friday night should be a low scoring game with Detmers and Nikhazy on the mound, but I don't see how the Rebels Saturday and Sunday starters can compete with Bobby Miller and Luke Smith, especially this early in the season. Swayze Field is right up there with Alex Box Stadium and Dudy Noble Field, but I think McDonnell will have his team prepared and the Cards come away with the series, 2-1.
