Sunday marked exactly two months until March Madness tips off. It’s hard to believe considering how many games are still left, but the tournament isn’t as far away as some might want to believe.
Last week Louisville was in a weird place as they had losses only to teams ranked in the AP poll. But they didn’t really have any signature wins outside of a home win against Michigan, who has been sputtering as of late. But then came Saturday’s College Gameday showdown against the third-ranked Duke Blue Devils. Leaving Durham with a physical and gritty win against Coach K, the top basketball program in country, and in the toughest road environment in the entire sport was every bit of a resume win.
The nation has taken notice, and the fruits of such a win are already beginning to show. Bracket Matrix is arguably one of the best prognosticators when it comes to predicting future bracket seeds as it averages over 90 different reputable bracket projections, making it the most expansive and (usually) accurate predicting systems out there.
With just one strong win to their resume, Louisville was averaging a 4.09 seed across the board. But after taking down KenPom’s #1 team, the Cardinals now have an average seed of 2.91. Jumping an entire seed line after a single victory (and many, many Top 10 losses)? Yeah. It was a big deal.
Perhaps most exciting of all was that Louisville’s AdjEM KenPom rating moved up to 23.95 and has since settled at 23.88. As I noted two weeks ago, 15 of the last 18 national champions, 11 of the last 18 runners-up, and 55 of the last 72 Final Four teams have had an AdjEM of 23.81 or higher. With Saturday’s win, Louisville has entered elite company as only six other schools (WVU, Dayton, Baylor, Gonzaga, Duke, and Kansas) rate above a 23.81 AdjEM this year. Not bad company at all.
Here’s where Bracket Matrix and some of the best prognosticators have the Cards in March:
#3 Seed
1 seeds: Baylor, Kansas, Gonzaga, San Diego State
2 seeds: Duke, Florida State, West Virginia, Butler
3 seeds: Michigan St, Seton Hall, Louisville, Dayton
4 seeds: Oregon, Maryland, Auburn, Villanova
#3 seed facing #14 Wright State in the Midwest Region
1 seeds: Baylor, Kansas (Midwest), Gonzaga, San Diego State
2 seeds: Dayton, Florida State, Duke, Michigan State (Midwest)
3 seeds: Butler, West Virginia, Seton Hall, Louisville
4 seeds: Auburn, Oregon, Maryland, Villanova (Midwest)
#2 seed facing #15 UC Irvine in St. Louis in the East Region
1 seeds: Baylor, Kansas (East), Gonzaga, San Diego State
2 seeds: Dayton, Louisville, Duke, Florida State
3 seeds: Maryland, Seton Hall (East), Villanova, Michigan State
4 seeds: Oregon, Rutgers(!) (East), West Virginia, Butler
Kerry Miller (Bleacher Report)
#2 seed facing #15 Wright State in St. Louis in the Midwest region.
1 seeds: Baylor (Midwest), Kansas, Gonzaga, San Diego State
2 seeds: Duke, Louisville, Florida State, Seton Hall
3 seeds: Dayton, Butler (Midwest), Michigan State, West Virginia
4 seeds: Oregon, Auburn (Midwest), Villanova, Maryland
#3 seed facing #14 Stony Brook in the South egion
1 seeds: Baylor (South), Kansas, Gonzaga, San Diego State
2 seeds: Dayton (South), Duke, Seton Hall, Florida State
3 seeds: Louisville, Butler, Michigan State, West Virginia
4 seeds: Villanova (South), Maryland, Kentucky, Oregon
Go ahead and lock it in. There’s no way any of this changes in 2 months.
