You may be waking up this morning and looking at your retirement savings (don’t look) and your shares (seriously, don’t look) and you may notice that virtually everything on the stock market is doing terribly right now. You may be wondering “what can I invest in to get me out of this mess?” The answer is not toilet paper nor hand sanitizer, as I’m afraid you’ve missed the boat on those.
However, I have the answer.
How? While I’m not a stockbroker or a (successful) gambler, I do have a knack for spotting very important trends such as how Louisville’s d-line could not handle #thiccness last season. This ability comes from my elementary understanding that history repeats itself.
Early last summer when I was writing for our good friends at LouisvilleSportsLive.net, I wrote a piece on how Louisville was not an exception to this rule. Ignoring all other legitimate factors such as recruiting, roster management, coaching, player development facilities, etc., I predicted that solely based on Louisville’s last 30 years of win totals, that they were right on schedule for Step 2 of Conor’s Ultimate Cardinal Football Win Trend Tracker (name is still a work in progress).
Here’s how CUCFWTT works:
Step 1: Late Decade Collapse To start the cycle we as UofL fans, unfortunately, must endure a late decade collapse. Think of it as a reset, if that helps the pain at all. Like most things, the cycle begins at the bottom.
The ‘80s
Heading into the ‘90s, the Cards were wrapping up what had been an abysmal decade that did not include a single season with more than 5 wins. In ’85 Howard Schnellenberger took over a Bob Weber-led team that had bottomed out with a 2-9 season in the previous year. “Schnelly” would spend the next few years building the program into something the program hadn’t seen since Lee Corso was patrolling the sidelines: A Winner.
The ‘90s
After leading the program to heights the UofL football program had never seen before, Schnellenberger stepped down due to personal issues with then-president of the university, Dr. Donald Swain. He stated in a 2012 interview that the issues with Swain revolved around the athletic department’s planned move for the football team to give up its conference independence and join the start-up Conference USA.
Schnellenberger spoke on the matter saying, “I wasn't going to coach in a conference where I didn't have a chance to compete for the national championship.”
Eastern Michigan’s Ron Cooper took over the Cards in 1995, and in just 3 seasons led the Cardinals face-first into the ground with a 1-10 record in ‘97.
The ‘00s
Once again, after leading the program to heights it had never seen before, with the 2006 Cardinals capping off a wildly successful 12-1 campaign with an Orange Bowl victory, UofL’s head coach decided to leave. This time it was Bobby Petrino leaving UofL for the Atlanta Falcons.
Steve Kragthorpe would take over a star-studded roster and quickly drive the program off the cliff in less than 3 years, ultimately getting himself fired after a sour 4-8 2009 season.
The ‘10s
In less than two seasons after Bobby Petrino’s Cardinals take Clemson to the wire in an instant classic down in Death Valley, and Lamar Jackson becomes the program’s first Heisman Trophy Winner, Petrino seemingly stops running the program and gets fired before the 2018 team can complete a shocking 2-10 season.
STEP 2: First Signs of Hope
The ‘80s
After finishing a disappointing, but encouraging, 3-win season in 1987, Schnellenberger and his squad take an enormous leap to 8 wins in ’88. This season proves as a sign of good things to come.
The ‘90s
John L. Smith guides Louisville as they bounce back from their worst season in over 30 years to win 7 games and earn a berth in the 1998 Motor City Bowl.
The ‘10s
Charlie Strong takes over a limping Cardinal program and caps off an improbable bowl-bid season with a win over Southern Mississippi in the Beef ‘O’ Brady’s Bowl.
The ‘20s
I am a genius.
Step 3: Big Leap to Start the Decade
The ‘90s
After an encouraging 1987 season, Schnellenberger’s team took a small step back to win 6 games in ’89. But with some serious momentum building after two fairly successful seasons, the Cardinals surge to win 10 games in 1990 and kick off the New Year with a 34-7 crushing of the Alabama Crimson Tide in the Fiesta Bowl.
The ‘00s
With back-to-back 7-win seasons in ’98 and ‘99, John L. Smith had Louisville clicking on all cylinders as they rolled into the new millennium. Smith’s Cardinals would reel off back-to-back Conference USA Championships while amassing a combined 20-5 record over 2000 and 2001.
The ‘10s
Charlie Strong and company enjoy back-to-back bowl trips in ’10 and ’11 before Teddy Bridgewater and his team of future pro-football players stun #3 Florida 33-23 in the Allstate Sugar Bowl.
Step 4: The Hangover
The ‘90s
Schnellenberger and his Cardinals let their New Year’s hangover linger all year as they come crashing down to a sobering 2-9 season.
The ‘00s
John L. Smith loses focus as he sets his sights higher and ultimately accepts the Michigan State job offer during halftime of the 2002 GMAC Bowl. The Cardinals would go on to lose the bowl game as they completed the season with a 7-6 record.
The ‘10s
Charlie Strong leaves for Texas after the Cards finish 12-1. Petrino takes over for a second stint as he leads UofL into the much tougher ACC. Louisville’s roster turns over as win totals fall into single digits in ’14 and ’15.
Step 5: Second Wind
The ‘90s
After nearly flatlining in ’91, Schnellenberger and gang regroup and go on to win 5 games in ’92, and continue forward as they win 9 games and the Liberty Bowl in 1993.
The ‘00s
In 2003 Bobby Petrino takes over a program reeling from a disappointing 7-6 season and strange departure by John L. Smith. The Cards win 41 of the next 50 games as they become one of the hottest programs in the country.
The ‘10s
Petrino 2.0 and gang take time to adjust to life in the ACC, as well as each other in ’14 and ’15, accomplishing decent 9 and 8-win seasons. However, 2016 starts off hotter than any season in recent memory, with Lamar Jackson becoming an overnight phenom and the Cardinals carrying a Top 5 ranking late into November before the wheels fall off in Houston. This doesn’t stop Jackson from taking home the Heisman Trophy and becoming the program’s first player to do so.
Step 6: Repeat Step 1
So here we are once again basking in the joy of CUCFWTT’s Step 2. We overachieved just as Schnelly did it in the 80s, John L in the 90s, and Charlie in the 10s. Now we are right on schedule for Louisville to be much improved, but still win around the same amount of games as the year before, which leads to a terribly annoying and cold late December game in Charlotte. That ain’t no guess. That’s what it’s gon’ be.
TL;DR – Buy stock in Louisville Football if you can figure it out.
Join the discussion here: https://louisville.forums.rivals.com/threads/new-post-stock-watch-louisville-football-trending-upwards.49892/
