Wake Forest has been the ACC's most pleasant surprise in an otherwise down year for the conference. Dave Clawson's squad is 5-0, ranked 19th in the country, and they're sitting at 10th in the nation in total offense. The Deacs aren't only explosive on offense but they're also a smart senior-laden team. The fact they're the second least penalized team in the country, averaging a mere 3.2 flags per game for 27.6 yards reflects this. Louisville's defense has looked undisciplined at times and has given up too many big plays this season, a fact Wake will look to exploit with their explosive and seasoned offense.
Matchup and timing play a big role in college football and Louisville's defense is coming off its worst defensive performance of the season when they were fresh off a bye week. The Cards surrendered 259 yards on the ground, 304 yards in the air, for a total of 563 total yards at a rate of 7.22 yards per play, and 39 points. All of those numbers were season highs expect for passing yards allowed (they gave up 382 yards to FSU). Now Wake Forest is fresh off a bye week where they got to watch Louisville play the team they most recently defeated. The timing and the matchup Saturday seem to be in Wake's favor but are things as really lopsided as they appear?
Wake Forest has proven they can rack up yards but Louisville has proven they can score after hanging 41 on Boston College last weekend. After five games Wake Forest is averaging 36 points a game, Louisville is averaging 32. A deep look at the numbers however, reveals that Louisville has played three power-five schools (BC, FSU, ND) averaging 27.3 points per game whereas Wake Forest has only averaged 25.5 against two power-five schools (BC, UNC). Against both schools' last (common) opponent (BC) Louisville outscored Wake Forest 41-27.
All of this means there's hope for Louisville but the defense has to play much better than they did against Boston College. They gave up way too many explosive plays to players who are not very explosive because they blew assignments too often, which has plagued the Cards all season. They're also going to have to carry their offensive outburst from last week over to this Saturday. This week's five to watch is going to be heavy on offensive players since the defense needs a tune up.
The former three-star from Graham, NC has been great in the early going of the 2019 campaign. He's completed 70% of his 168 passing attempts for 1,521 yards, 14 touchdowns, and only three interceptions. He's also hurt defenses with his legs pilling up 262 yards and three touchdowns in Wake Forest's unorthodox hesitation zone read attack. The last time Louisville faced a quarterback who could run they gave up 81 yards and a touchdown to Notre Dame's Ian Book who has since only run for 79 yards over his last four games. Newman is a true dual threat who plays behind a solid line, has two effective running backs to han the ball off to, and can rely on two big physical receivers to go up and snag jump balls in a pinch.
Newman looked a little shaky at times throwing the ball against Boston College but he supplemented his air attack with 102 yards rushing on 23 carriers. If there is a knock on him this year it's that he's put up most of his gaudy stats against non-power-five defenses. North Carolina held him to 214 yards on 54% passing and one touchdown and an interception. Boston College held him to 243 yards on 63% passing and two touchdowns and a pick. The rebuttal to that would be that when he wasn't having his best games throwing the ball against ACC foes he had his two best games on the ground running for 78 and two scores against Carolina and the aforementioned 102 against Boston College.
Newman is a true dual threat and gamer. Louisville has to find a way to contain him in both phases if they want to win this game.
Strnad is a redshirt senior who has proven to be Wake Forest's best defensive player since he became the starter midway through last season. He leads the ACC in tackles with 53 (30 solo) and leads Wake Forest in passes broken up with four. He also has 5.5 tackles for a loss, two sacks, and an interception. The defensive captain can play sideline to sideline or thump downhill and as evidence by his interception and four pass deflections he's also effective in coverage. Strnad is Wake Forest's second most important player behind Jamie Newman and could hear his named called next April.
Sage Surratt, a former two-star recruit, is the team's leading receiver as a redshirt sophomore. His 103 receiving yards per game are good for 11th in the country. He's also tied for 11th in touchdowns with six, 12 in yardage with 515, 12th in catches per game with 6.8, and 20th with 34 catches. Surratt is one of the most productive receivers in the country but he is coming off his worst game of the season against Boston College who held him to four catches for 41 yards and a touchdown.
Rivals may have been a little generous with his height back in 2017. The Wake Forest website has him listed at 6-foot-3, 215-pounds. Regardless of two inches here or there, pairing Surratt with his 6-foot-5, 225-pound receiving counterpart Scotty Washington places defensive coordinators on the horns of a dilemma.
Scotty Washington completes Wake Forest's set of rooks on the flanks. The 6-foot-5, 225 pound receiver is a matchup nightmare and his 27 catches for 470 yards and six touchdowns are right there with Sage Surratt's in the national rankins. While his counterpart Surratt turned in his worst performance of the season Washington held it down with 5 catches for 94 yards and score of his own. Louisville only has one tall corner in 6-foot-1 redshirt sophomore Anthony Johnson so one of either Washington or Surratt will be matched up with a sub-six-foot corner at all times. Considering Louisville has been giving up so many big plays down the seams this season, rolling a safety over the top of to assist in coverage is a risky play.
Another two-star prospect who is paying off huge for Wake is Kenneth Walker who is making a claim for first team freshman all-american honors. While he's only carried the ball 33 times, he maximizes his opportunities and averages nearly ten yards per carry. The true freshman is ranked 10th in the ACC with 318 yards. His numbers may be skewed by a 96-yard touchdown run against Rice but he did run for 94 yards on 13 carries against North Carolina as well as 91 yards on nine carries against FCS Elon. Couriosly, Walker only rushed twice against Boston College while the starter, Cade Carney, struggled mightily to pick up 58 yards on 24 carries.
Look for Walker to be more of a factor coming out of the bye week especially considering Louisville's propensity of giving up explosive plays. He is one of the ACC's up and coming stars and Louisville has to prevent him from having a breakout game.