Last week wasn’t fun. This week has a chance to be a lot more fun. NC State is a team that ranked 109th in the country in returning production entering this season, and on top of that they’ve been decimated by injuries. They currently have 10 players that are on the injury report, and only 4 of them aren’t out for the remainder of the season. Depth issues will be a major concern for both teams and neither team can use it as an excuse. This game could get very weird very quickly.

Forecast:

Tailgate: Low 40s, High 30s, with 55% chance of rain. Wind NE at 15mph.

Kickoff: 38 degrees with 45% chance of rain. Wind NE at 15mph.

Postgame: 38 degrees with 35% chance of rain. Wind NE at 15mph.

Key Times:

5:30pm – Pregame Show with Mark Ennis on 93.9 The Ville

7:30pm – Kickoff.

Postgame: Mark Ennis will host postgame show on 93.9 The Ville.

Miscellaneous:

In something I have never seen before, Bill Connelly’s SP+ has this game as a dead heat between the teams. Both teams have a 50% chance of winning the game with a final score of 29-29. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Watch/Listen:

TV: ACCN

Online stream: WatchESPN

On the call: Dave O’Brien, Tim Hasselbeck

SiriusXM: Home – 193, Away - 194

Radio Stream: TuneIn.com

Series:

Louisville Leads 6-3

Last game: NCST 52 – Louisville 10

NCST players to Worry About

Offense:

#24 RB Zonovan Knight – 94 rushes for 528 Yds, 5.6 YPR, 4 TDs.

#3 WR Emeka Emezie – 43 rec for 431 Yds, 10.0 YPC, 1 TD

Defense:

#10 S Tanner Ingle – 63 tackles (34 solo), .5 sacks, 4 pass deflections, and 1 forced fumble.

#92 DT Larrell Murchison – 38 tackles (20 solo), 10 TFLs, 7 Sacks

Keys to the Game

1. Make NCST’s Front 7 Look Average – NCST’s front 7 is very average. And outside of their two defensive tackles, there’s really not a whole lot to be worried about when it comes to what the Wolfpack loads the box with. At DE and LB NCST is dealing with injury issues and inexperience. If Louisville can take advantage of these weaknesses, make an average-to-below-average front 7 look as such, then they should have a solid day running the ball

2. Make NCST Pass – For the first time this season a quarterback did not make my list of players to worry about. This is due in large part to NCST’s constant shuffling of QBs, who aren’t very good. The only real strength of this offense is their running backs, and that’s pretty generous considering their less than stellar numbers. If Louisville can stop the run and force whoever is playing QB to throw to their inexperience WR corps, then the Cardinals should be able to get off the field and force turnovers.

3. Pressure the Pocket – Bryan Brown has been pretty headstrong with the defense he wants to run, and a lot of times that ends up with Louisville sending just 3 rushers on 3rd and longs. Unfortunately, Louisville doesn’t have the players right now who can get to the QB when rushing just 3 guys. Unless Brown changes this philosophy and starts doing exotic blitzes, Louisville is going to need to their d-line to put pressure on NCST’s QBs. NCST has a subpar o-line, but so did Miami and we made them look great. This may be one of the biggest battles to watch this weekend.

Predictions

Vegas: Louisville -4 o/u 56. This means Vegas estimates a score of 30-26.

SP+: +/- 0, with 50% win probability. 29-29. (Pre-season +11.5 with 25% win probability)

ESPN’s FPI: 58.5% chance

Staff Predictions*:

Mark Ennis (8-1): Louisville 30 – NC State 23

Dave Lackford (7-2): Louisville 24 – NC State 20

Ty Spalding (8-1): NC State 28 – Louisville 21

Conor Shea (7-2): Louisville 17 – NC State 14

*note: predictions were made on August 27th and will not be updated in-season