11 games down, 1 game to go. It’s Bourbon Bowl Week, y’all. For the first time in nearly a decade the Vegas favorite is favored by less than 10 points, with Kentucky opening at -4. These are two very strange teams that have had decent seasons despite playing backup quarterbacks all year. This is one of the hardest games between the two teams to predict as both sides feel equally confident. I’m excited as hell, and you should be too.
Forecast:
Tailgate: 42 degrees with 95% chance of rain. Wind 7 mph.
Kickoff: 46 degrees with 90% chance of rain. Wind 8 mph.
Postgame: 53 degrees with 80% chance of rain. Wind 9mph.
Key Times:
10:00am – Pregame Show with Mark Ennis on 93.9 The Ville
12:00pm – Kickoff.
Postgame: Mark Ennis will host postgame show on 93.9 The Ville.
Miscellaneous:
This game is going to be so damn weird. Both teams are bowl eligible, and win or lose neither team’s list of potential bowl destinations changes very much. There’s not a lot to play for in this game other than just hating your rival and Mark Stoops trying not to spoil a 6-year head start on Satterfield. Weird.
Watch/Listen:
TV: SEC Network
Online stream: WatchESPN
On the call: Taylor Zarzour, Matt Stinchomb
SiriusXM: Home – 190, Away - 203
Radio Stream: TuneIn.com
Series:
Kentucky Leads 15-16, while Louisville leads the modern series 15-10
Last win: UK 56 – Louisville 10
Kentucky players to Worry About
Offense:
#1 WR Lynn Bowden – 129 rushes for 951 YDS, 7.4 YPR,7 TD. 30 REC for 348 YD, 11.6 YPC, 1 TD. 28 attempts for 60 yards, 46.7%, 326 YDS, 5.4 YPT, 2 TD, 2 INT, 96.6 QBR
#10 RB Asim Rose – 132 rushes for 724 YDS, 5.5 YPR, 5 TD
#20 Kavosiey Smoke – 95 carries for 534 YDS, 5.6 YPR, 6 TD
Defense:
#91 DE Calvin Taylor – 30 tackles (18 solo), 8.5 TFLs, 7.5 Sacks (Leads SEC), 3 Forced Fumbles
#4 LB Josh Paschal – 31 Tackles (18 solo), 7.5 TFLs, 3.5 Sacks
Keys to the Game
1. Stop the Run – Kentucky can only do one thing, and everyone has known it for weeks now. The problem is that it works regardless of how much you sell out on it. Lynn Bowden is a very gifted athlete and he probably deserves most of the credit for getting Kentucky bowl eligible in a year where they lost so much from the 2018 team and with so many injuries. He’s led virtually a run-only offense that does a great job of confusing defenses with read options and play fakes. Louisville’s defense hasn’t been great with stopping the run, but hopefully there experience against great rushing teams like Boston College, Florida State, and Clemson give them so confidence and experience to slow down UK’s three-headed rushing attack.
2. Pass. The. Ball. – For two weeks in a row we’ve seen Louisville’s opponents commit to stopping the run only for the passing offense to break things open. Louisville figured it out a lot faster against Syracuse and they torched ‘Cuses secondary all day long. UK hasn’t played many good offenses this season and I think this is where Louisville can really take advantage against a green secondary. One thing to keep an eye on is the weather as forecasters are calling for rain. While rain certainly hurts any teams’ passing game, bad weather the last three games hasn’t seemed to slow down this offense any.
3. Take the Lead Early – Kentucky’s offense is perfect if you have the lead and want to sit on the ball while you watch the clock burn. They’re excellent at getting short gains and extending drives. However, with virtually no passing offense, though Bowden can throw well for a receiver, this offense is not built to play from behind. If Louisville can jump on them the way they did against Syracuse and Wake, UK will have to play out of their element if they want to get back in the game.
Predictions
Vegas: Kentucky -3 o/u 54. This means Vegas estimates a score of roughly 28-25.
SP+: UK -5.9 with a sore of 32-26. UofL 37% chance to win (Pre-season +14 with 21% win probability)
ESPN’s FPI: 30.7% chance to win
Staff Predictions:
Mark Ennis: Louisville 31 - Kentucky 30
Dave Lackford: Louisville 31 - Kentucky 28
Ty Spalding: Louisville 28 - Kentucky 24
Conor Shea: Louisville 35 - Kentucky 31
Preseason Predictions:
Mark Ennis (9-2): Kentucky 24 – Louisville 13
Dave Lackford (8-3): Kentucky 27 – Louisville 20
Ty Spalding (9-2): Kentucky 28 – Louisville 17
Conor Shea (8-3): Louisville 28 – Kentucky 24
