Clemson is good. Like really good. Luckily for Louisville, however, they were able to hang with the Tigers for almost 3 full quarters before the flood gates finally broke, and they won’t face a team close to Clemson’s caliber for the rest of the season. Gone are the days of high-octane offenses and shootouts, and hello to the mean defenses and grossly underperforming offenses. We start off this stretch of ugly offenses/good defenses with Virginia at home this Saturday.

Forecast:

Tailgate: Lots of rain.

Kickoff: Like a lot.

Postgame: Like biblical amounts of rain.

Key Times:

10:30am – Tailgate Lots and Ticket Office open

1:00pm – Card March

1:30pm – Pregame Show with Mark Ennis on 93.9 The Ville

2:00pm – Gates Open. “Special Happy Hour pregame drink prices will be available for the two hours between gates opening and kickoff. Fans arriving early can purchase $3 domestic draft beer or $5 12-ounce cans on the Norton Terrace or UPS Flight Deck, and $3 domestic drafts throughout the remainder of the stadium until kickoff.”

3:30pm – Kickoff.

In Game –

Homecoming Court presented

Athletics Hall of Fame – “Join us at the end of the first quarter as we introduce the newly inducted members of the UofL Athletics Hall of Fame!

Francisco Garcia (Men's Basketball, 2002-05)

Wesley Korir (Track & Cross Country, 2005-07)

Cindy LaCrosse (Women's Golf, 2005-09)

Angel McCoughtry (Women's Basketball, 2005-09)

Eric Wood (Football, 2005-08)

Lacy Wood (Softball, 2003-06)”

Alumni Fellows – “In an annual tradition, the University of Louisville will honor exemplary ambassadors for the University of Louisville as the 2019 Alumni Fellows and Alumna of the Year are recognized.”

Football Alumni Recognition – “Welcome back our Cardinals Forever as former football student-athletes and their families join us for the second annual Louisville Football alumni reunion.”

Spoiler alert: Lamar Jackson. That is all.

Postgame: Mark Ennis will host postgame show on 93.9 The Ville.

Miscellaneous:

Listen, we all know it’s going to rain. I’ve heard over 20 different forecasts on when the rain is coming, how much rain there will be, and how long it will last. Who cares? Ever wonder where the phrase “fair weather fan” comes from? Think about it.

Plus, Lamar Jackson will be here and he’s pretty damn cool.

Watch/Listen:

TV: ACCN

Online stream: WatchESPN/ACCNX

On the call: Chris Cotter, Mark Herzlich, and Kelsey Riggs

SiriusXM: Home – 194, Away – 210

Radio Stream: TuneIn.com

Series:

Virginia leads 4-3

Last win: UVA 27 – UL 3

Virginia Players to Worry About

Offense:

#3 QB Bryce Perkins- 63.4% for 1570 Yds, 6.7 YD/Pass, 8 TD, 7 INT, 124.8 QBR, 106 carries for 253 yards, 2.4 YPC, 5 TD

#2 WR Joe Reed – 42 Rec for 400 Yds, 9.5 Yd/Rec, 4 Rec. TDs. 591 Kick Return Yds, 39.4 Yd Avg. DON’T. KICK. TO. HIM.

Defense:

#29 S Joey Blount – 53 tackles (31 solo), 3.5 TFLs, 2.5 Sack, 2 INT

#4 ILB Jordan Mack – 41 tackles (21 solo) 7.0 TFLs, 7.0 Sack

Keys to the Game

1. Shut Perkins Down – Virginia’s offense is not good. Perkins is missing a lot of his skill players from last year that made his job so much easier. Because Perkins is down on weapons, he’s been a one man show for this offense. He’s definitely a huge talent, but if you look at his stats you can see how defenses have really made is life difficult by disrespecting Virginia’s backs and keying on him. If Louisville can take away any hope of Virginia’s running backs getting going, then they can sell out on Perkins on designed runs. Perkins also has a tendency to be careless with the ball, so if we can get them into some long passing downs and confuse him with the different coverage looks Brown used last week to force 2 interceptions, UofL’s defense could have a good day.

2. Attack UVA’s Corners – UVA lost one of their starting corners, Darius Bratton before the season to injury, and lost their All-American corner, Bryce Love, on the other side of the field two weeks ago. With an expected blitz-heavy defensive front from UVA, UofL’s QBs and receivers can have a lot of success in the quick-hitters and screen games against their backup corners.

3. Outrun Virginia – Louisville is good at running the football. Virginia is good at stopping teams from running the football. Virginia is bad at running the football. Louisville is bad at stopping teams from running the football. Something has to give, and my money is on Louisville. People are worried about the rain hurting UofL’s offense, when I think it actually favors UofL. If it rains, then Virginia is going to have to run more which they really struggle with. While the rain can take UofL’s explosive passing ability away, I feel like Hawkins can still get going against this defensive front. Hawkins broke a 27-game steak of Clemson holding rushers under 100 yards, and Clemson’s front is a step above Virginia’s. Whoever wins the run battle should win the game.

Predictions

Vegas: Virginia -3.5 o/u 53.5. This means Vegas estimates a score of 28-25.

SP+: +4.7, with 39% win probability. 29-24. (Pre-season +8.1 with 32% win probability)

ESPN’s FPI: 37.7% chance

Mark Ennis (6-1): Louisville 27 – Virginia 24

Dave Lackford (6-1): Virginia 31 – Louisville 13

Ty Spalding (6-1): Louisville 24 – Virginia 23

Conor Shea (6-1): Virginia 35 – Louisville 24