A few weeks ago, I took a look at how UofL’s opponents were trending at the time. Since then we’ve been able to gather more data (games), and we’ve learned more about Louisville as a team as well as their opponents. A good majority of fans are feeling positive about the direction of Satterfield’s program as things progress, and many are setting their sites on a bowl game in December.

I hate to be this guy, but even with the way things are trending up for UofL and the way things may be trending south for a handful of their opponents, we may need to temper our expectations as this team still has a tough road ahead if they want to reach a bowl game.

Here is how Bill Connelly’s SP+ system projects the rest of Louisville’s schedule:

Heading into the season SP+ did not like Louisville as the computer projected Louisville to finish 87th in the country with 4 wins. UofL has climbed the charts to 70th overall in SP+, and its game projections have drastically changed thanks to Louisville’s improvement and its opponents’ not-so-improvements.

In comparison to the chart above, UofL’s win probability for Boston College is up 10% from the preseason 48%. Against UVA, NCST, and Cuse, Louisville’s chances have raised 9 points from 32%, 13 points from 25%, and 15 points from 39%, respectively. And last, but not least, against UK their odds have increased over 20 percentage points from the preseason projection of 21%. Mark Stoops, woof.

This means that while Louisville was only favored in 2(!) games entering the season, they are now outright favorites in 2 of their last 8 games. That may not seem like much, but flipping 2 games into our theoretical favor is no small feat.

However. even with all of the fluctuations we’re seeing, SP+ still only has the Cards in the 4-to-5 win range. So, if we are going to dream big and try to make a bowl game, we will still need to over-achieve.

With 8 games left UofL must win this weekend to set up its best shot at making a bowl. This is the highest Louisville will be favored over any remaining opponent, so the Cardinals must capitalize on this opportunity.

A win over Boston College would allow Louisville to take some momentum into Wake, where they’d have the chance to put themselves within 2 wins away from bowl eligibility with 6 games remaining. But if they lose to Boston College on Saturday, I’m afraid that Louisville would find itself behind the 8 Ball as they’d only be favored in 1 game for the rest of the season.

And by SP+’s projections, there’s about a 42% chance that Louisville finds itself backed into that corner.

This is obviously concerning, and something fans need to carefully consider as they start thinking bigger and bigger. Of Louisville’s 8 remaining games, half of the games are less than 10 points way from being 50/50 games. UofL needs to win at least 3 of those games and steal an upset to become bowl eligible.

The schedule may be breaking in Louisville’s favor at this point, but there’s still a long way to go (to get to the Quick Lane Bowl 2019!). Regardless of what happens over the final 2/3rds of the season, I encourage Louisville fans to not worry too much about the program getting ahead of schedule, and to enjoy even the smallest of victories and improvements as the program rebuilds.