Matchup Cheat Sheet - Week 6: Boston College Eagles
Coming off of Louisville’s first bye week, the Cards set their eyes on the Eagles of Chestnut Hill as they begin their march to bowl eligibility. Win this one and there’s hope, lose the game and the odds aren’t great. As weird as it may be to say, this game against Boston College is a big one.
Forecast:
Tailgate: Sunny with temps in low-mid 50s in the morning that rise to the low 70s by kick off. 0% chance of rain. Winds E at 7 mph.
Kickoff: Sunny and 72. Winds SE at 5 mph.
Postgame: Sunny with temps in low 80s. High of 82. Winds S at 5 mph.
Key Times:
7:30am - Stadium lots open
9:00am - Ticket office opens
9:30am - Bud Light Street Fest at Norton Healthcare CardMarch
10am – Pregame show on 93.9 The Ville starts
Card March
12:30pm – Kick Off.
Postgame: Mark Ennis will host postgame show on 93.9 The Ville.
Miscellaneous:
Tailgate will feel like football weather at first, but do not be fooled. Wear layers. It gon’ get hot.
Also, if you’re looking for a home game with significant implications and a chance to win, this is the one. Drink your coffee, show up early, and be loud.
Watch/Listen
TV: ACCNX/Regional Sports Network (RSN). I have no words.
Online stream: ESPN3
On the call: Tom Werme, James Bates, Abby Labar
SiriusXM: Home – 193, Away - 194
Series:
Louisville leads 6-5 (Boston College has won the last 2)
Last win: 2018, BC 38 – UL 20
BC Players to Worry About
Offense:
#2 RB AJ Dillon – 627 rushing yards with 6 TDs. Yikes.
#13 QB Anthony Brown – 1057 yards with 8 TDs. 143.22 QBR. 2 INTs.
Defense:
#14 LB Max Richardson – 49 tackles (29 solo), 6 TFLs, 1.5 sacks
#10 DB Mike Palmer – 39 tackles (22 solo), 1 TFL, 2 INTs, 1 PBU.
Keys to the Game
1. Establish the Run – I feel like I’ve said this every game but it’s so important for the way this offense works. We saw against FSU how when the run game couldn’t get going, the offense stalled. But once we got the ball moving, we were able to catch FSU’s secondary cheating in, and we were able to get the TE’s open on short routes. UofL must take advantage of BC’s 89th rated defense by SP+.
2. Have a Passing Attack – It’s no secret that UofL’s QB play has been suspect. BC’s passing defense has also been suspect as they have one of the worst passing defenses in the Power 5. If we can’t test the defense with the pass then they’ll sell out on our run game which would stymie the most important aspect of the offense. So yeah, we need to throw the ball.
3. Slow Down Dillon – AJ Dillon loves putting up silly stats on Louisville and I’m sure he’s eager to do so again. Cam Akers made Louisville looks silly, but the defense was able to step up in the second half which helped propels UofL’s near-come back. Kansas was able to force BC into passing downs which went poorly for BC. We’ll have to try and stop Dillon any way possible.
Predictions
Vegas: Louisville -6 o/u 61. This means Vegas estimates a score of 33-27.
SP+: -3.6, with 58% win probability. 33-29. (Pre-season +0.9 with 48% win probability)
ESPN’s FPI: -9.1, 77.6%
Mark Ennis (4-0): Louisville 28 - 27
Dave Lackford (3-1): Louisville 28 – BC 27 (so did Mark cheat off you this time? Or vice versa?)
Ty Spalding (4-0): BC 28 – Louisville 20
Conor Shea (4-0): Louisville 27 – BC 24